Junction

Modelling journey times in Bristol

Kacper Sokol

How to use this presentation

All the figures are interactive:

Press <esc> key to see the outline of this presentation:

The Data

 Plots made with Highcharts
 Speed and travel time line plots for each road section (contrasted against road accidents in the area — red dashed linessource)
 Average monthly travel time bar charts for each road section (contrasted against relative monthly rain forecastsource)
 the analysis and the plots are done all automatically via Python scripts (in form of Jupyter notebooks) available in the Junction GitHub repository

Speed and travel time

00001 00022 00028 0003 00030 00036
0004 00046 00063 00073 00078 00079
00104 00109 0011 00111 00115 00116
00117 0012 00124 00125 00126 00127
00128 00129 00130 00131 00135 00136
0014 0015 00168 00169 00175 00176
0021 0035 0037 0038 0039 0040
0044 0045 0050 0053 0056 0058
0059 0070 0076

Average monthly travel time

(cor is the correlation coefficient between the travel time and scaled ``Raininess'' of the month)

00168
(cor: 0.72)
00124
(cor: 0.68)
00104
(cor: 0.66)
00169
(cor: 0.58)
00117
(cor: 0.57)
00125
(cor: 0.53)
00116
(cor: 0.53)
00001
(cor: 0.48)
0053
(cor: 0.42)
00131
(cor: 0.40)
00111
(cor: 0.25)
00109
(cor: 0.25)
00028
(cor: 0.25)
00078
(cor: 0.23)
00135
(cor: 0.22)
00176
(cor: 0.19)
00079
(cor: 0.19)
0038
(cor: 0.17)
00126
(cor: 0.16)
0076
(cor: 0.13)
00130
(cor: 0.11)
00128
(cor: 0.08)
0050
(cor: 0.06)
0056
(cor: 0.03)
00115
(cor: 0.02)
00046
(cor: 0.01)
00129
(cor: -0.01)
0015
(cor: -0.02)
00127
(cor: -0.04)
0014
(cor: -0.04)
0044
(cor: -0.04)
0021
(cor: -0.05)
00073
(cor: -0.14)
0058
(cor: -0.17)
00136
(cor: -0.18)
0003
(cor: -0.22)
0070
(cor: -0.24)
00175
(cor: -0.25)
0012
(cor: -0.29)
0059
(cor: -0.31)
0040
(cor: -0.33)
0045
(cor: -0.36)
00063
(cor: -0.37)
00030
(cor: -0.39)
0011
(cor: -0.42)
00036
(cor: -0.49)
00022
(cor: -0.55)
0004
(cor: -0.55)
0039
(cor: -0.59)
0037
(cor: -0.59)
0035
(cor: -0.61)

Traffic patterns

Shift in mean travel time

(click the image for interactive plot)

Local regularity

(click the image for interactive plot)

Local irregularity

(click the image for interactive plot)

Traffic load

Average travel time per weekday

As expected: rash-hours have higher travel times then middays and nights; weekends experience longer travel times afternoon and evening and lower in mornings and nights

Average travel time per weekday

This is the case in most of the monitored road sections...

Average travel time per weekday

...but sometimes it differ significantly!

This road is really busy during the night!

How do large city events/festivals affect congestion?

Bristol International Balloon Fiesta

(Thursday, 11 August — Sunday, 14 August 2016)

In the given data a change of traffic patterns is most significantly affected on road section 0011 (Hotwell Rd OB to Portway OB), which is relatively close to where the Balloon Fiesta is happening.

Influence on the travel time

(click the image for interactive plot)

Road accidents and journey times

Analysing accidents influence on the journey times is a bit of a guess-work as the government dataset gives geographical location and the date (no specific time, therefore the red marker is always at 12pm). Also the accident is assigned to the nearest road section in the dataset (but no further than 1000m away).

(click the image for interactive plot)

How do weather patterns influence the traffic load?


🌧️ Analysing rain ☔

7 out of 51 sections have significant positive correlation with rain (above 0.5). For example: 00168, 00169 (reverse direction to 00168), 00124 and 00125 (reverse direction to 00124).

In Bristol July is the driest month and November is the rainiest.

5 out of 51 sections have significant negative correlation with rain (below -0.5). For example 0035 and its reverse direction 00036.

Time specific traffic patterns ⏰

Is there seasonal variation in the journey times?

  • We can observe variation in day of the weeks (weekdays and weekends) and time of the day (morning and evening rash hours and steady afternoons and nights) all shown in previous slides...
  • ...but there is also variation due to holiday season, e.g. calm Christmas Day and busy Boxing day in 2016.

Is traffic bad at specific locations at specific times of the day?

In the morning more cars are coming into the city and in the evening more cars are leaving the city.

Does heavy traffic on one road section influence traffic on the others?

Yes it does! Both positively and negatively.

You can see the journey time correlation heat map HERE.

For instance when the journey times at 00001 are high they are also high at 00030 and 00036 but at the same time they are low at 0015, 0050 and 0070.

Challenges
and
Possibilities

Challenges

  • Without more detailed Bristol travel data (e.g. detailed location of traffic cameras, roads interconnections, detailed routes, number of cars for each speed measurement) it is difficult to look for interesting patterns — it is more labour intensive
  • Background knowledge such as accidents, roadworks and event calendar would help analyse the data
  • Also detailed weather data with daily resolution could help identify correlation between journey times and weather conditions such as wind, rain and temperature

Possibilities

  • OpenStreet Map API can be used to get location of traffic lights, number of lanes on the road, bus stops, bus lanes, etc.; it can also provide road details in a form of polyline
  • Public transport data would facilitate comparison of car and bus journey times
  • Analysing sentiment of tweeter feeds of Bristol public transport companies and their customers could provide interesting insights when related to car travel times

Thank

you